Description: The article introduces the concept of overfitting in predictive modeling and illustrates how it hinders our ability to predict new data well.

Description: A Discussion of why female mortality is higher than male mortality at higher ages.

Description: Update of RSC members, planned activities for 2018, retirement 20/20 for public sector plans.

Description: Building on the Part 1 article, Introduction to the Representative Scenarios Method, this article describes testing the methodology with respect to four product types, fixed indexed annuities with GLIBs, level term life insurance, universal life with secondary guarantees, and variable annuities with GLWBs. This Part 2 article describes testing results, refinements to the RSM methodology, and next steps.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: Actuaries of the future have to embrace the ideas and technologies that lie ahead.

Description: Current DC plans do an extremely poor job at managing investment and longevity risk for plan participants. This leads to suboptimal outcomes: retirement income is potentially too low, assets are subject to catastrophic losses and may even run out. Insurance solutions—most notably annuities—address some of these issues, but are expensive and not very much liked by consumers. This paper explores how Enhanced Risk Sharing Savings Accounts (“ERiSSA”), consisting of a combination of individual DC accounts with a collective risk sharing and return redistribution mechanism coupled with deferred annuities, might be able to strike a better overall balance for consumers.

Description: From the 41st ARC: a presentation focusing on risk management of a pension plan whose benefit is the greater of a defined benefit DB and a defined contribution DC plan. Hedging strategies are derived and illustrated, recognizing that the DB guarantee is like an option.

Description: This paper demonstrates the use of Quantile Regression in the development and understanding of conditional value at risk (VaR) models for enterprise risk management.

Description: Each month in the media we learn of another set of jobs being automated into oblivion or replaced by disruptive technologies. We see taxi drivers replaced by Uber and Lyft now, and soon by self-driving cars. An Oxford University study of 702 occupations showed insurance underwriters in 698th place, with a 99% probability of computerization. They were safer for obsolescence by automation than only four occupations such as hand sewers and telemarketers.